Looking For The Green Shoots
[For the record, it wasn't a landslide.]
Yes, the election was a disaster and the next four years are going to be some of the hardest we will live through. Yes, it’s maddening to see all the hot takes about what the Dems did wrong without any acknowledgement of the deep-seated misogyny at play (not to mention the complete amnesia about Shelby v. Holder and the gutting of the Voting Right Act by SCOTUS in 2012, and how voter suppression has taken root in states like Texas and Florida. But I digress). Yes, the cabinet nominees being named right now are the worst of the worst and it’s enough to make one’s head explode. BUT: There are several pieces of positive and heartening news that came out of November 5th that are worth looking at and remembering:
First, seven out of ten ballot provisions for abortion access passed, four in states that Trump won: AZ, MO, MT, NV. (If you ask me, this number should actually be eight, because Florida requires a 60% majority for ballot initiatives.) To be sure, there is Republican chicanery afoot, specifically in Missouri, to undo the will of the voters. And let’s not forget that Nebraska had competing proposals on the same ballot. But the fight for reproductive freedom remains a potent issue for us and it will only get stronger.
Second, Democrats gained House seats from 2020, and, in states like New York and California, retook seats that they lost in 2022. And given that Trump poached two sitting GOP reps for cabinet roles, and the disgusting Matt Gaetz is slinking back to Florida after having resigned his seat before his nomination for Attorney General flamed out, the Republican edge over Dems is razor-thin as of this writing, 215-220. (Note: The last House race was called last night, and it ranks among the tightest in US history: Democrat Adam Gray won in CA-13 by 187 votes.) The special election for Gaetz’s seat won’t happen until April, and assuming Elise Stefanik and Michael Waltz are confirmed to their respective cabinet posts in late January and their seats are left temporarily vacant, this means a 215-D and 217-R count for the first several months of the next Congressional term. If 2018 is an indication of what is to come, close to nothing will get done in the House of Representatives during the 119th Session of Congress, and that’s good news.
Third, the 2026 election cycle is imminent. The House will certainly be in play, and the Senate might very well be obtainable.
But the larger point is that Trump won this year by the tiniest of electoral margins, one that’s shaping up to be the smallest in modern history. This is by no measure a mandate, and it means that his policies will be met with resistance from the populace which will eventually play out at the ballot box. Don’t lose sight of this.
In the meantime, it’s been raining bags at the kickboxing gym since 11/5 (not just mine!). I know many are recovering and regrouping from this catastrophe, and everyone should take the time they need to refortify. Between now and January 20th, let’s enjoy the relative calm before the storm.