This Week's Focus: Arizona and Nevada
9 Tuesdays to go.
Holy crap, we’re in the single digits as far as weeks left before November 5. The absence of that second numeral is giving me major anxiety, and as a way to offset it I’ve been trying to finalize some election-related projects I’ve assigned to myself. One is to finish making GOTV signage, pictured above, that I’m going to take around to local businesses to encourage voter registration. (btw, if this is something you might want to do in your area, DM me; I will gladly adjust the housekeeping language at bottom and send you a print-ready PDF.) Another has been to complete a document I created containing registration information for college students who want to vote on campus in swing states. I should have been done with this a few weeks ago, but it seems new states that might be in play for Dems are popping up all the time, whether for electoral college value, and/or where reproductive rights are on the ballot, and I’ve found myself revising it often. Two states with such abortion referendums up for a vote in November happen to be the battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada.
In last Friday’s Good Stuff thread, I referenced some analysis from data scientist Tom Bonier, who has been looking at voter registration activity in the days after Biden stepped down and endorsed Kamala; Bonier has been calling this the Harris Effect, and the numbers are just staggering: women and young voters, particularly young women of color, have been registering to vote in numbers never before seen, even since the weeks after the Dobbs decision was handed down. One state he highlighted a couple days ago was Nevada, noting, “The number of young Hispanic women registering in the week after VP Harris effectively became the nominee was triple the number of registrants during the same period in 2020. Black women registration more than doubled.” As I pointed out on Friday, new registrants such as these are not being captured in polling, because these people haven’t voted in past election cycles and therefore their names aren’t on pollsters’ call lists. Thanks to the Hillary debacle of 2016, I reflexively strain against hope and enthusiasm, and instead look to hard data and reality to ground my feelings, but I gotta say that these numbers make me downright optimistic. They also reinforce my long-held belief that women’s anger, which has only grown exponentially since Trump’s election in 2016, has been majorly overlooked in the political discourse even up until today. As has been evident in recent elections, when abortion is on the ballot, Democrats win. If you don’t believe me, please read the amazing Jessica Valenti’s work, including her newsletter Abortion Every Day. In particular, don’t miss today’s post, Abortion Is the Number One Issue for Young Women Voters. (You can also preorder her upcoming book, published by my alma mater, Crown Publishing.) tl;dr: that both Arizona and Nevada have abortion referendums on the ballot this fall open up an incredible opportunity for Democrats.
There are also crucial Senate seats in each state to pay attention to; in Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema is (thankfully) not running for reelection, and US Rep. Ruben Gallego is campaigning against Vaseline-lens aficionado failed gubernatorial candidate and super-thirsty Trump VP wannabe Kari Lake to fill her seat. In Nevada, incumbent Jacky Rosen is running for a second term against Sam Brown, an Afghanistan war veteran who moved to Nevada from Dallas before losing the NV Republican Senate primary in 2022. Of course, there are other statewide and local elections that are important in each state, and Ballotopedia has the skinny so please read up.
At this point, you all know what to do to help; check in with AZ Dems and NV Dems to find volunteering or donation opportunities. Also check out Seed the Vote, which is a great resource for getting started with canvassing and phone-banking. But keep this high in mind: there’s a silent majority out there, and we have to work like crazy to make sure it gets to the polls. So assign yourselves some election-related projects and let’s go.!
I'm so paralyzed by the options, I actually don't know what to do first. I don't love calling, but short of visiting a swing state( which was my early goal;Pennsylvania..looking less likely) I think I have to suck it up and call. I have postcarded and written letters but that feels performative at this point and not as effective. So little time...yikes!!!!!